The story behind the story on mortgage rates. January 13, 2025 It was another tough week for mortgage rates last week, with the big miss being the BLS Jobs Report with close to 100,000 more jobs than expected. JOLTS : 8.098mil vs 7.7mil expected. The internal data indicated more weakness than the headlines, but the bond markets responded negatively (bad for rates). ISM Services : 54.1 vs 53.3 expected Prices paid (measure of inflation) 64.4 vs 57.5 expected / 58.2 previous. This large increase caught some attention. ADP (private sector jobs): 122,000 vs 146,000 expected. Nearly all these jobs are in the services sector (112,000), for large businesses. The wage components indicate more slowing, which is good for inflation. Jobless claims Initial: 201,000 vs 211,000 previous (10,000 decrease) Continuing: 1.867mil vs 1.834mil previous (33,000 increase) BLS Jobs: 256,000 vs 160,000 expected with unemployment 4.1% vs 4.2% expected. Double ouchy. Previous ...
